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The Dow Theory | Schannep Timing Indicators thedowtheory.com Stock market trend timing indicator incorporates the Dow Theory and our proprietary Schannep Timing Indicator. PRINT Overview: There's always a divergence of opinion on the outlook for the stock market, but seldom more noticeable than now. Bears point to these reasons for the stock market to drop into a bear market: 1) the inverted yield curve, 2) high consumer debt levels, 3) faltering industrial production, 4) international conflicts or even the possibility of war, and 5) a coming recession. Valid concerns all, however there is always another side, so let's look at what they might be: 1) The yield curve does have an excellent record of preceding recession as you know from our Special Report. There you will see that the average lead to the market's high has been 6 Â½ months and the lead to the next recession has been 14 â…“ months. Frankly, this it the only "Bear point" above that gives me pause; I'm not sure it's "different this time", but it could be. 2) High consumer debt is a function of population growth and looks to be sustainable and is easily affordable. The following charts are from MarketWatch (6/19/19) "U.S. Consumer dept is now breaching levels last reach during the 2008 financial crisis" where the opening sentence reads: "Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels". I disagree, and as you will see from the following chart, the debt load is not a problem and consumer delinquency is about as low as ever. The article is perhaps an instance of "fake news"? 3) Industrial production has faltered before in 2015-6 and then recovered nicely, so why not now? 4) How can you evaluate international conflicts (which always occur) or even the possibility of war? You can't, and as to 5) a coming recession? Yes, there will be one but when will the great coming be? So far, GDP estimates for the following quarters are positive and that does not equate to a recession this year. Let's worry about 2020 and beyond as we get a little closer and can see more clearly. Now let's talk about another type of divergence, the one that relates to the Dow Jones Transportation average and the Dow Industrials. The one that's all the rage on Wall Street: The reason this divergence is important is because from the Dow Theory standpoint you'd expect both indexes (Transports and Industrials) to be going in the same direction if both industries were healthy, or unhealthy. Depending on the time frame, the difference in divergence changes somewhat. Recently, since the May setback lows to now, the Industrials are up 7.1% while the Transports are up 7.4%, so the lagging Transports are catching up. Yes, the Industrials made a new 2019 high and the Transports have not, yet. I would call this lagging rather than divergence but since the Transports usually lead the Industrials it is somewhat worrisome until the Transports catch up. And why might they? Truckers are a part of the transportation index and they are looking up. Other than Fed EX and UPS, I'm hard pressed to see any other sub-group acting poorly. The DOW THEORY for the 21st Century: This Indicator is GREEN from the 75% BUY at 26,026.32 on 3/1/19 when the definition of a Bull market was met and combined with the 25% BUY at the time of the Capitulation on 12/24/18 at 21,792.20, the average entry level is 24,997.90. As you know from my June 21st email: "Yesterday both the Dow Industrials and the S&P500 made new 2019 highs shown in the table posted in the Subscribers Home Page. This means the ongoing bull marketÂ is confirmed! The Dow Transports are lagging and need to reach their 2019 high of 11,098.99 in order to be 'in the clear'. I'll discuss their divergence and what it may, or may not, mean in my upcoming July Letter. In the meantime, the secondary reaction is history and the primary uptrend has prevailed". The Original Dow Theory: This Indicator is GREEN (BUY) as of 4/1/19 at 26,258.42 when both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports closed above their February secondary reaction highs. The recent setback lastedÂ from "three weeks to as many months" so therefore was a valid secondary reaction from the old/original Dow Theory's interpretation. Since then the Industrials have made new highs but the Dow Transports have not, yet. When they do, that would be a reconfirmation of the existing Buy and the market would be "in the clear". Until that happens, this indicator is still at risk of a Sell signal. The S&P500 plays no part in this theory's signals. Schannep Ââ†‘ÂTIMINGÂ â†“INDICATOR: This proprietary market-timing Indicator is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when this Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19 at 25,891.32. The market's momentum is positive, and the status of monetary conditions continues favorable, therefore no change is in sight. IMPORTANT CHANGE: Effective January 2020, all of our subscription renewals will be based on the $20 monthly plan. This will NOT represent a change for a large number of you, but we understand this will be an increase for previous annual Subscribers as such renewals will be discontinued. Several factors have influenced this decision, one of which is my age (I just celebrated my 85th birthday) and the lack of an heir apparent as a future editor. Please know that currently I have no plans for discontinuing my Letter, I am in good health, but I want to be transparent in a proactive way with you, my valued Subscribers. Sincerely, Jack The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator: This, our primary major-trend timing Indicator, is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when the Schannep Timing Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19. As it is the combination of both the Dow Theory for the 21st Century and the Schannep Timing Indicator, any change would be shown in the paragraphs above. This Indicator is the one I use in my model (real money) portfolio and recommend most Subscribers use it also. It is 100% invested as shown at the end of this Letter. The BOTTOM LINE: There are questions as to the market going up in anticipation of a successful China trade deal and a recession postponed until later in the new decade, or things falling apart. Conflicting reports include Consumer Confidence (from the Conference Board) sharply down but Consumer Sentiment (from the U. of Michigan) only modestly so. So, which is it? Our Indicators (above) suggest staying the course, and you'll remember their combined "targets" are in the vicinity of 30,000 for the Industrials. We know it will not be straight up, and maybe not up at all if the economy falters or world events intervene, but I am optimistic that the bull market will continue and the worth of our Indicators will once again be proven. Jack Schannep Editor for TheÂ SchannepÂ team Historically we have tracked the performance of one of my ACTUAL ROTH IRA portfolios, fully following the Composite Timing Indicator's signals which is currently 100% invested (as shown below). For longer-term results seeÂ The Composite Timing IndicatorÂ which we use for timing in our Portfolio versesÂ Buy and Hold. FYI, over the last 65 years Buy & Hold has grown at a 10.6% annual rate whereas The Composite has grown at a 13.3% rate. The problem with showing this real-money Portfolio is that it represents only what I am doing, which could be very different from others. Subscribers use this letter for Market Timing, which could include shorting, going long, even utilizing leveraged investments that could double or triple â€“ in either direction. These results have been monitored by several independent sources that track our performance suchÂ asÂ Hulbert Financial Digest,Â DowTheoryInvestments.com,Â CXO Advisory GroupÂ andÂ TimerTrac.com. This Letter concentrates on the big picture, the trend of the major stock market indices which usually influences the price direction of most individual stocks. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an: 1756 days ago
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